19 Early Lessons From Covid-19
We constantly underestimate compound growth. Both the good kind and the bad. Linear thinkers get bamboozled by an exponential world.

Steele Roddick
October 5, 2020

- We constantly underestimate compound growth. Both the good kind and the bad. Linear thinkers get bamboozled by an exponential world.
- Much of the system has been optimized for efficiency, at the expense of resilience. Redundancy is wasteful when viewed through the lens of efficiency.
- We are all far more connected, through far fewer connections, than we tend to imagine. The world is a small town.
- Most things in life don’t matter much, yet we tend to give these trivial, unimportant, superficial things most of our time and attention. Sometimes all of it.
- Scarcity can trigger selfish instincts. Yet, hard times also bring out the best, most selfless versions of many. Both hoarders and heroes walk among us.
- Our environment largely determines our behaviour.
- Everyone wants the illusion of control. Doing absolutely nothing is hard. Often we will act to gain a sense of control, even when those actions do more harm than good.
- The further upstream we catch problems and take preventative steps, the better things go. Yet, we constantly wait until the urgency is too great, when it’s already too late.
- The idea that we can grow our way out of every problem is a mirage. Tradeoffs are inevitable and must be made whether we admit it or not.
- Acting on an idea that goes against the consensus is incredibly hard and requires an incredible amount of conviction. It’s also part of what makes great leaders great.
- Contributing is about making the whole of society greater than the sum of its parts.
- The future isn’t evenly distributed geographically. Sometimes a part of the world — a company, community, city or country — is months or years ahead, and the rest of the world just doesn’t know it yet.
- The future pivots on whether things are trending up or down, whether the transmission rate is greater or less than 1 in this case. The struggle is all about getting things to trend in the right direction, to make the passage of time your ally, not your enemy.
- If everyone actually optimizes for their long-term best interest, they tend to do right by society. But it only takes a few stupid short-term pleasure seekers to ruin the party for everyone.
- We underestimate the importance of the invisible. We put too much weight and attention on what we can see.
- We allow distance to impact moral judgements in a way that’s logically indefensible. Peter Singer pointed out long ago that we tend to think we all have a moral obligation to save a nearby drowning child, yet are more or less okay with everyone not doing more to save starving children who happen to be half a world away. Physical proximity should make no or little difference in theory, but in practice it’s massive.
- Reacting the right amount is hard. We tend to under, then over, react. Or underreact about some things and overreact about others. The line is hard to find.
- Weak or loose social ties like the kind you might have with a coffee shop barista, neighbour, server or cashier are more beneficial to our mental health than most of us realize.
- Life is filled with risks that are difficult if not impossible to accurately quantify.
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